Welcome back, everything is terrible

Good Sunday afternoon. This is Mason Boycott-Owen, returning with Sunday Crunch ahead of the end of recess.
BEFORE WE GET STARTED: Also back from its summer break is your favorite morning podcast, Politics at Jack and Sam’s, which returns on Monday in a new daily format. POLITICO’s own Jack Blanchard and Sky News’ Sam Coates will be in your podcast feed every weekday morning at 7.30 a.m. sharp, teeing you up for the day ahead in British politics. Jack and Sam reckon they can give you everything you need to know in less than 20 minutes each morning — subscribe here to see if they’re right.
And while you’re waiting for that: Don’t miss this weekend’s Westminster Insider podcast, which is a ‘back to school’ special also hosted by Jack. He speaks to six experts including the FT’s Stephen Bush, the Spectator’s Katy Balls and the IFS’s Ben Zaranko about the big political moments we should all be braced for this autumn — from the U.K. budget on October 30 to looming general elections in the U.S. and Ireland. Listen here now and be ready for the months ahead.
**A message from Airbnb: At Airbnb, we have long led calls for proportionate regulations for short-term lets. We support plans to introduce new registration and planning rules in England as a significant step forward. Discover more.**
Welcome back, everything’s terrible: MPs will scuttle back to Westminster from their sun loungers on Monday as Parliament’s summer recess ends — and the work of fixing the country starts again. Despite today’s sunshine the mood music is dour, as Labour continues to remind us how bad both public services and the public finances are and will be for some time. 
Look back in anger: This week’s Sunday Times long read says the Labour government is re-doubling its efforts to blame Rishi Sunak for the state of the nation, even as some of Labour’s own MPs lament the miserable tone of their own government’s comms. “We’re supposed to be offering them hope, not more misery,” one told the paper. 
It’s NOT austerity, okay?: Government figures told the paper that despite Labour having taken several leaves out of the old Cameron and Osborne playbook (Politics 101: Blame your predecessors), the tax rises and cuts to departmental budgets coming down the track are not in fact austerity. Because, well, they say so. 
Winter is coming: Chancellor Rachel Reeves is aiming to soften the blow of Labour’s cut to pensioner’s winter fuel allowance by launching a week of action with charities and local authorities to urge the elderly to check their eligibility for pension credit, which is worth up to £3,900 a year. 
Labour division: Having already struggled with the leadership’s decision to maintain the child benefit cap, Labour MPs are now feeling deeply uncomfortable about cutting welfare. The Observer reports some MPs have been bombarded with angry emails from constituents. The Sunday Mirror hears similar, with one backbencher saying: “They need to consider a U-turn over winter fuel payments.” Good luck with that.
We didn’t want to do it: Writing for the Observer, Reeves said: “They were not the choices I wanted to make or expected to make, but they were the right choices to put our country on a firmer footing.” 
But we had to: Speaking on Sky’s Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Lucy Powell, the leader of the House of Commons, said that there would have “potentially” been an economic crash and a run on the pound if they hadn’t found in-year savings. 
Flight of the broad shoulders: The Sunday Telegraph reports, as it often does, that the wealthy are now fleeing the U.K. because of Labour. This time it’s blaming Keir Starmer’s hint at tax rises in the budget for those with the “broadest shoulders,” with one advisory firm telling the paper the rich are “getting out while the going is good.” 
Speaking of tax rises: The Local Government Association — which represents local councils across England and Wales — has called on the Treasury to lift the 5 per cent cap on annual council tax rises in a bid to help reduce the pressure om town hall budgets. The government has not ruled it out. 
School’s back, kids aren’t: As schools return from their summer holidays tomorrow, the education secretary has warned that 150,000 children missed half of their teaching time last year. Bridget Phillipson wrote in the Sunday Times that parents going on “cheaper holidays” are part of the problem. 
Grammarless schools: The Sunday Telegraph splashed on calls from unions to axe tests on grammar and times tables due to pupil anxiety. “We are not saying ‘let’s abandon knowledge’,” a union source told the paper. Thank goodness for that. 
What they won’t be reading: The paper also reports that references to Taiwan were removed from GCSE Chinese textbooks after complaints from Chinese officials. 
Chinese interference: The Mail on Sunday reports warnings from security sources that China has the ability to “turn off” hospitals in the U.K. with a “flick of a switch” due to the antiquated IT systems still used by the NHS. 
Private healthcare: Speaking of how bad the NHS is at the moment, new research by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation has found that most people in the U.K. now expect to go private for routine services such as dentistry, physiotherapy and counselling because they assume won’t be able to be seen quickly on the NHS. 
Justice delayed … and denied: Via an interview with Andy Cooke, the head of the policing inspectorate, the Sunday Telegraph offers a grim assessment of the state of the police, prisons and crown prosecutions services. “The entire criminal justice system is dysfunctional, undoubtedly dysfunctional,” Cooke says. 
Free speech: Yvette Cooper has been threatened with court action, by presumably non-lefty lawyers, over plans to force police to record more hate crime incidents, according to the Sun on Sunday. 
Landlord: Labour MP Jas Athwal has said he is “unreservedly sorry” to his tenants after more evidence emerged that some of his properties are infested with mold and ants. Unnamed Labour MPs told the Sunday Times they want to see the whip suspended. “We fight slum landlords in the Labour Party — we don’t become them,” one said. Lucy Powell did not back further action against Athwal when quizzed by Sky’s Trevor Phillips this morning. 
PLANET TORY: As Parliament returns, so too does the Tory leadership contest. Wednesday will see the first knock-out round of the battle. Mel Stride is widely expected to be the first to fall, but his campaign told the Sunday Telegraph that there’s still “all to play for.” Let’s see.  
Cleverly launches: Fellow leadership hopeful James Cleverly said he wants his party to slash welfare to fund tax cuts and a rise in defense spending, as he sat down with the Sunday Times ahead of his leadership launch tomorrow. 
Just Do It: Cleverly said his hero is former U.S. President Ronald Reagan, as he was “relentlessly optimistic.” Cleverly said the Tories should take note and avoid being “the grumpy party.” 
Kemi launches: Kemi Badenoch is set to launch her campaign on Monday, the Sunday Times says, with rising stars of the party Laura Trott and Claire Coutinho along those to endorse her — along with crucial support of Tony Abbot, the former Australian prime minister. 
Set back: However, Neil O’Brien, one of Badenoch’s former supporters, has now backed Robert Jenrick, telling the Telegraph that he is “smart, fresh, charismatic.”   
Jenrick talks: Speaking at a campaign event at midday today, Robert Jenrick said that his party is in need of a few “hard truths” during a speech that was heavy on the British patriotism. “Let nobody doubt that we are a great country,” he said. “We rarely say this, because it’s not in our British nature to be boastful.”
Last out the traps: Tom Tugendhat will launch his campaign on Tuesday morning. 
Open selection: J.L. Partners polling for the Mail on Sunday suggests that there are only four points separating Tom Tugendhat, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick in favorability among Tory members, with Priti Patel in fourth place. While the omission of Mel Stride is perhaps understandable (sorry Melvyn) the poll also did not include James Cleverly. Do they know something we don’t? 
Power to the members: Tory conference later this month will see the return of members’ debates according to Richard Fuller, the interim Tory chairman, who is keen to champion freedom of speech. 
MAGGIE’S BACK: Following public pressure — or more specifically, media pressure, given most people obviously don’t care — Downing Street has put a painting of Margaret Thatcher back up in No. 10 after Keir Starmer removed it for being “unnerving,” the Mail on Sunday reports. However, it has been relegated to an anonymous meeting room rather than from the former-PM’s study. 
Listen Up, touts: Thousands of angry, cagoule-clad Oasis fans took to social media this weekend to vent their fury at corporate ticketing giant Ticketmaster amid an online scramble to see the Manchester band’s reunion tour next summer. Tickets were seen selling for up to £7,000 on resale sites. The Sun on Sunday reports that Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, and Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, have written to the Competition and Markets Authority to express their concern at touts and resale sites. 
Stop crying your heart out: Asked whether the government would, in the words of Labour backbencher Zara Sultana, “nationalize Ticketmaster,” Lucy Powell told Sky’s Trevor Phillips that she doesn’t think that’s necessary. 
Oh, Lucy can wait: Powell said she had personally managed to get tickets “after hours of waiting like many many other people,” and had been forced to cough up “a bit more than I was hoping to pay.” 
Cigarettes and alco .. oh forget it: Pressed repeatedly on whether Labour wants to ban smoking in pub gardens, Powell told Trevor Phillips there has been “a consensus for a long time now that we want to see a smoke-free country,” and denied the government would be “attacking the hospitality industry” with the potential ban. 
Beer garden rumble: The Sunday Express splashes on suggestions that pub staff could be put in danger by the ban, having to face down drunken customers intent on breaking the rules. 
Don’t listen to them, babe: Tony Blair has told Keir Starmer to ignore the haters on social media as “it’s going to do your head in” in an interview with the Observer. Blair, who saw around a million people march in protest against his decision to join the Iraq war, said: “You can become completely psychologically derailed by critics. And you can’t allow that to happen.” If only he had.
Right-wing surge in Germany: The far-right could win a state election in Germany for the first time since the Nazis in the 1930s, with Alternative for Germany (AfD) expected to top the polls in at least one eastern state as Germans head to the ballot box today. 
Support in the east: The party has significant support in formerly communist east Germany, and is predicted to win in Thuringia. The AfD could also win in Saxony, but will struggle to form a coalition if other parties refuse to cooperate with them after the vote. 
Snake oil: Speaking to Trevor Phillips, Miguel Berger, Germany’s ambassador to the U.K., said that Keir Starmer’s warnings about the “snake oil” of populism apply “everywhere.” 
Hostages found dead: Israeli military have released a statement confirming they recovered the bodies of six Israeli hostages, mostly in their 20s, in a tunnel in Gaza, claiming they have been killed by Hamas. Hamas released a statement blaming Israel for not taking part in serious cease-fire negotiations. 
Biden outraged: One of the hostages was a U.S. citizen, Hersh Goldberg-Polin. U.S. President Joe Biden said he was “devastated and outraged” by the killing, adding: “Make no mistake, Hamas leaders will pay for these crimes.”
Rick Kelsey on Times Radio (4 p.m. to 7 p.m.): Labour MP for Dover and Deal Mike Tapp … Lib Dem MP for Edinburgh West Christine Jardine … Tory MP for Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Mike Wood … Political Editor of HuffPost Kevin Schofield.
Westminster Hour (Radio 4, 10 p.m. on Sunday): Lucy Powell … Shadow Veterans’ Minister Andrew Bowie … Institute for Government Director Hannah White … the Spectator’s Katy Balls.
MONDAY
Parliament: MPs and Lords return from recess.
Commons: Housing questions, technology debate.
Lords: Debates on reforming social care, banning vapes, and EU data sharing.
Tories: Leadership launches from James Cleverly and Kemi Badenoch.
Democrats: Kamala Harris and Joe Biden set to hold a joint event in Pennsylvania.
TUESDAY
Commons: Treasury questions, railway public ownership bill.
Lords: Debate on banning smoking in public places.
Tories: Tom Tugendhat campaign launch.
WEDNESDAY
Commons: Prime Minister’s Questions, Budget Responsibility Bill.
Lords: Debate on high speed rail between Euston and Manchester.
Tories: First vote planned for Tory leadership.
Grenfell: Inquiry is set to conclude with the publication of its final report from phase two.
THURSDAY
Commons: Business and trade questions, Great British Energy Bill.
Lords: Debate on VAT for private school fees.
FRIDAY
Commons: Not sitting.
Lords: Second reading of bills on lithium-ion batteries and support for infants and parents.
SATURDAY
Ireland: Keir Starmer travels to Dublin to meet Taoiseach Simon Harris and watch England vs Ireland in the UEFA Nations League.
Far-right: A ‘Pro-UK’ far-right march and counter protest in Glasgow.
Tennis: U.S. Open women’s final.
SUNDAY
Tennis: U.S. Open men’s final.
Paralympics: Final day of the 2024 Paralympic Games.
Unions: Annual Trades Union Congress kicks off in Brighton.
Writing Monday morning Playbook: Sam Blewett.
Thanks: To my editor, Jack Blanchard, for giving Crunch some Sunday sparkle.
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